ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005 THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE OUTER BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS REMAIN INTACT. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS BENEATH A RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMET...BEFORE A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES OVER COOLER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5....OR SOONER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN 36 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PREVIOUS MICROWAVE PASSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPEED DISPARITIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWEST MOTION OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BASED OFF OF THE ECMWF AND THE BAMM...BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 105.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W 50 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W 55 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 19-Jul-2005 02:40:07 UTC