Tropical Storm EUGENE

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TROPICAL STORM EUGENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON JUL 18 2005
 
THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES AND A RECENT AMSR-E AQUA-1 OVERPASS
DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION CENTER...ALTHOUGH THE OUTER
BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH QUADRANTS REMAIN INTACT.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPRESSIVE DEEP BURST
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM ALL
AGENCIES ARE 35 KT. BECAUSE OF THE RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BAND OF STRONGER WINDS TO THE SOUTH...THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AGREE WITH MODEST INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS BENEATH A RELATIVELY WEAK EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMET...BEFORE
A WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES OVER COOLER WATER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
SIMILAR WITH DISSIPATION BY DAY 5....OR SOONER. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS PHILOSOPHY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KT IN
36 HOURS.

INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN ADJUSTED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
ESTIMATED AT 320/10...BASED ON SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND PREVIOUS
MICROWAVE PASSES. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE POORLY INITIALIZED THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SPEED
DISPARITIES CONTINUE...ALTHOUGH ALL AGREE WITH A GENERALLY NORTHWEST
MOTION OVER COOLER WATER DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND BASED OFF
OF THE ECMWF AND THE BAMM...BUT ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT.
 
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.8N 105.9W    40 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.7N 107.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.9N 108.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.8N 109.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.5N 111.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 21.5N 113.9W    30 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 22.0N 117.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     24/0000Z 22.0N 120.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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