ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT TUE JUN 28 2005 CALVIN REMAINS AN UGLY TROPICAL STORM THIS MORNING...WITH ONLY A MODEST INCREASE IN THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE NOTED OVERNIGHT. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 35 TO 45 KT...AND A COUPLE OF SHIPS ABOUT 100 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 20-25 KT WINDS AT 06Z. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT IT COULD BE WEAKER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09. CALVIN REMAINS ON TRACK...SO LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TO SHIFT IT SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...OR TO THE LEFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 28/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THE WEAKNESS IN THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO HAS FILLED IN AND DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW IS BEGINNING TO AFFECT CALVIN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS NORTH OF THE NHC MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM BAM AND GFDL SOLUTIONS. WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR HAS ABATED SLIGHTLY...WHICH HAS ALLOWED SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING TO REDEVELOP. HOWEVER...ANOTHER SURGE OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES WAS NOTED UPSTREAM EAST OF ACAPULCO THAT SHOULD AFFECT CALVIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF PERIODS OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE CALVIN REACHES COOLER WATER...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR. AS SUCH...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN 12 HOURS...BUT THERE COULD EASILY BE 5 KT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS AT ANY TIME BEFORE STEADY WEAKENING BEGINS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY SINCE CALVIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY AWAY FROM MEXICO. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 15.9N 102.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 16.2N 103.8W 40 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 16.6N 105.8W 35 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 16.8N 107.8W 30 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 17.0N 109.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/0600Z 17.0N 112.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 114.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 03/0600Z 17.0N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 28-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC