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Tropical Storm CALVIN


ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT MON JUN 27 2005
 
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED MAINLY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK AND EXTRAPOLATION OF MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITIONS
BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z. A 27/0449Z AMSU OVERPASS INDICATED THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION REMAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS AND THE WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KT AND THE DECISION TO NAME THE SYSTEM
TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS BASED ON A CONSENSUS DVORAK SATELLITE
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFWA...PLUS A UW-CIMSS 3-HR AVERAGE AODT ESTIMATE OF T2.6/36 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 330/04. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE REASONING OF THE TWO PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK
DISCUSSIONS. NHC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS REASONABLY CONSISTENT ON
GRADUALLY BUILDING THE MEXICAN SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WESTWARD OVER THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO TURN CALVIN NORTHWESTWARD LATER
TODAY AND THEN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS...ALONG WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED UP TO ABOUT 10 KT. CALVIN IS
EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR-26C SSTS BY 72 HOURS AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO
WEAKEN...AND THEN BE FORCED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES.
 
THE ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING CALVIN IS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR TO THAT OF
TS BEATRIZ JUST A FEW DAYS AGO. ANOTHER STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST
WENT OFF NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER BETWEEN 03Z-06Z...BUT
HAS SINCE WEAKENED. OTHER BURSTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WITH EACH ONE SLIGHTLY STRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...25 TO 30 KT 300-200 MB EASTERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW LAYER
AND PRODUCE AT LEAST 15-20 KT OF SHEAR. THE GFDL MODEL IS MUCH
LESS ROBUST THAN ITS PREVIOUS RUNS AND NOW ONLY BRINGS CALVIN UP TO
56 KT IN 24 HOURS. SINCE THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS MODEL...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK SLIGHTLY.
 
HEAVY RAINS FROM CALVIN ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA. SINCE THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS ANY
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE...THE EXISTING WATCH
SHOULD SUFFICE FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 14.6N  98.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 15.0N  99.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 15.6N 101.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 16.3N 103.1W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 16.9N 105.4W    55 KT
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 17.5N 109.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     01/0600Z 17.5N 111.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 114.5W    30 KT
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 27-Jun-2005 08:40:03 UTC