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Tropical Depression THREE-E (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SUN JUN 26 2005
 
AFTER A SLOW AND UNSTEADY GENESIS PERIOD...THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO HAS BECOME WELL ENOUGH ORGANIZED
TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH BURSTS OF STRONG
CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM AFWA...AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB.  BASED ON THE ESTIMATES AND THE SOMEWHAT RAGGED APPEARANCE OF
THE CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 30 KT.  THERE IS A
SHIP REPORT OF 34 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED
WIND DIRECTION...PRESSURE...AND WAVE HEIGHT APPEAR SUSPECT...AND
THE OVERALL RELIABILITY OF THE REPORT IS UNCERTAIN.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 310/5.  THE DEPRESSION IS
SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE
SOUTHERN END OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION
OF NORTHERN MEXICO.  THIS PATTERN HAS CREATED A WEAK STEERING
PATTERN FOR THE SYSTEM...WHICH HAS NOT MOVED MUCH OVER THE PAST
THREE DAYS.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THE TROUGH SHOULD WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO.  THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  WHILE THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE
OVERALL TRACK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED...WITH THE
GFS MOVING THE SYSTEM MUCH FASTER THAN THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND
CANADIAN.  THE TRACK FORECAST WILL COMPROMISE ON THE SPEED BETWEEN
THESE MODELS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY UNDER MODERATE EASTERLY SHEAR. 
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THIS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN
UNTIL IT HITS COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 72 HR.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER GFDL AND
THE WEAKER SHIPS MODELS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM IN CASE IT COMES CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST TO SPREAD TROPICAL
STORM WINDS ONSHORE.  RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL
LIKELY IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/2100Z 13.9N  98.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/0600Z 14.4N  99.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1800Z 15.4N 101.3W    45 KT
 36HR VT     28/0600Z 16.1N 103.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     28/1800Z 16.6N 105.9W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1800Z 17.0N 110.0W    65 KT
 96HR VT     30/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W    45 KT
120HR VT     01/1800Z 17.5N 116.0W    30 KT
 
 
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