ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 AM PDT FRI JUN 24 2005 HIGH-RESOLUTION DATA FROM A 0143Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS IN THE CIRCULATION WERE ABOUT 25 KT. THIS VALUE WILL BE USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY...BUT THE CYCLONE MAY BE EVEN WEAKER THAN THAT BY NOW. A SPORADIC PUFF OR TWO OF DEEP CONVECTION MAY STILL OCCUR WITHIN THE SYSTEM...BUT DISSIPATION TO A REMNANT LOW IS CALLED FOR IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/9...MAINLY BASED ON CONTINUITY SINCE THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND ON INFRARED IMAGERY. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING WINDS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO A GRADUAL SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BEATRIZ'S REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY DISSIPATE BEFORE BEING PULLED SIGNIFICANTLY SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD INTO A TRAILING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/0900Z 17.5N 112.5W 25 KT 12HR VT 24/1800Z 17.7N 113.4W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 24HR VT 25/0600Z 17.9N 114.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 25/1800Z 17.9N 115.1W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 26/0600Z 17.7N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 27/0600Z 17.5N 116.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC