ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 2 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005 AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS... POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72 HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11. BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING BECOMES DOMINANT. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE FORMING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR. THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.2N 111.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W 25 KT 48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 20:40:03 UTC