Tropical Storm BEATRIZ
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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS...
POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. BASED
ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER
WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72
HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11. BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
BECOMES DOMINANT. MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF
BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE
FORMING TO THE EAST. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING
GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR.
THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA.
FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.2N 111.0W 40 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W 30 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W 25 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
72HR VT 26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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