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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU JUN 23 2005
 
AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF
BEATRIZ HAS BECOME EXPOSED EAST OF AN AREA OF WEAK AND POORLY
ORGANIZED CONVECTION.  WHILE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN
55 KT...A 1316Z QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED AT BEST 45 KT WINDS...
POSSIBLY RAIN-CONTAMINATED...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT.  BASED
ON THE DECAY IN THE CLOUD PATTERN SINCE THEN...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT.  THE STORM IS MOVING INTO COOLER
WATER AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
REVISED TO HAVING BEATRIZ BECOME A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW IN 72
HR...AND IT MAY WEAKEN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 290/11.  BEATRIZ SHOULD TURN MORE WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT WEAKENS AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING
BECOMES DOMINANT.  MOST DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE TURNS THE REMNANTS OF
BEATRIZ SOUTHWARD AFTER 48 HR IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER CYCLONE
FORMING TO THE EAST.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN FORECASTING
GENESIS AND IN FORECASTING HOW CLOSE THE TWO SYSTEMS MAY BE...THE
TRACK FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER 48 HR.

THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT
DATA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 17.2N 111.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 17.6N 112.5W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.9N 114.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.0N 115.2W    25 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 18.0N 116.0W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1800Z 17.0N 119.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 20:40:03 UTC