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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU JUN 23 2005
 
BEATRIZ APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING NEAR 45
KT.  A TRMM OVERPASS NEAR 07Z DEPICTS A SHEARED SYSTEM WITH THE
ESTIMATED CENTER BENEATH THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...
WHICH HAS DECREASED SINCE 09Z.  WHILE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
REMAIN 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT DUE TO THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER RELATIVE TO THE DETERIORATING
CONVECTIVE PATTERN.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING AT AN ESTIMATED 295/12 AND SHOULD CROSS
THE 26C SEA SURFACE ISOTHERM LATER TODAY...AS IT ENTERS AN
INCREASINGLY STABLE AND DRY ENVIRONMENT.  THIS MOTION IS A LITTLE
TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.  TIME HAS JUST ABOUT
RUN OUT FOR ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...AND GIVEN THE RECENT
DECREASE IN CONVECTION A WEAKENING TREND COULD BE IMMINENT.  SHIPS
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS...WHILE THE
GFDL DOES SO ONLY FOR ONLY 12 MORE HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS.  BEYOND ABOUT 24
HOURS...BEATRIZ SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BREAKS DOWN...AND THE EVENTUAL REMNANT
LOW SHOULD THEN DRIFT WESTWARD ALONG WITH THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 16.9N 109.9W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 17.4N 111.6W    45 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z 17.9N 113.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     25/0000Z 18.2N 114.8W    35 KT
 48HR VT     25/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     26/1200Z 18.0N 116.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 96HR VT     27/1200Z 18.0N 117.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     28/1200Z 18.0N 118.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 23-Jun-2005 14:55:02 UTC