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Tropical Storm BEATRIZ (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BEATRIZ DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005
 
IN CONTRAST TO THE TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONVECTION THAT WERE
PRESENT OVERNIGHT...A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND NOW SEEMS TO BE
CONSOLIDATING IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LARGE
CIRCULATION...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A CONSENSUS 2.5.  THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM.  SHIP 9VVN AT 12Z
REPORTED 30 KT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION AND
OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...SO IT IS CONCEIVABLE THE WINDS ARE
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 35 KT BENEATH THE
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WE WILL WAIT TO INCREASE THE INTENSITY UNTIL
WE HAVE A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE CENTER LOCATION.

INITIAL MOTION REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN AND ESTIMATED AT
285/11...WHICH IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IN GOES IMAGERY. THE ADVISORY
POSITION IS SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE PACE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK...BUT THE FORECAST OTHERWISE REMAINS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED.
BEATRIZ SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...ACCOMPANIED
BY GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN A MODERATE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...UNTIL
REACHING AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS AND COOLER WATERS IN
ABOUT TWO DAYS. WEAKENING AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ONLY
SLIGHTLY GREATER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.


FORECASTER KNABB/FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/1500Z 14.8N 105.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/0000Z 15.2N 107.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     23/1200Z 15.8N 109.4W    50 KT
 36HR VT     24/0000Z 16.3N 111.3W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/1200Z 16.7N 112.9W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/1200Z 17.0N 115.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     26/1200Z 17.0N 118.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     27/1200Z 17.0N 120.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
 
 
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