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Tropical Depression TWO-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED JUN 22 2005

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS AT THE
THRESHOLD OF TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE BANDING
FEATURES ARE NOT VERY WELL DEFINED AND THERE IS SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE CENTER LOCATION...I HAVE OPTED NOT TO UPGRADE
THE CYCLONE AT THIS TIME.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE MODESTLY
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY WARM FOR THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IS A REASONABLE BLEND OF THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL
GUIDANCE.  BY 72 HOURS...THE CYCLONE WILL BE TRAVERSING COOLER
WATERS AND IN A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...SO WEAKENING
WILL LIKELY BE OCCURRING BY THAT TIME.

MY BEST GUESS AT INITIAL MOTION...285/11...IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN
IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  OTHERWISE THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST REASONING.  MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE WILL PROVIDE A GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
STEERING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST
WITH DECELERATION IS EXPECTED LATER IN THE PERIOD...FOLLOWING THE
SHALLOW-LAYER FLOW.  BECAUSE OF THE SLIGHTLY FASTER INITIAL
MOTION...THE OFFICIAL TRACK PREDICTION IS SOMEWHAT FASTER THAN THAT
OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0900Z 14.5N 104.9W    30 KT
 12HR VT     22/1800Z 14.9N 106.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0600Z 15.5N 108.5W    50 KT
 36HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N 110.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     24/0600Z 16.5N 112.2W    55 KT
 72HR VT     25/0600Z 17.0N 115.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/0600Z 17.5N 117.5W    35 KT
120HR VT     27/0600Z 17.5N 119.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 
$$
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 22-Jun-2005 08:40:02 UTC