ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005 THE HURRICANE APPEARS LESS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES THAN IT DID EARLIER TODAY...WITH A LACK OF BANDING FEATURES. HOWEVER...THE CENTRAL CONVECTION IS FAIRLY INTENSE...SUGGESTING THAT IT STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE. CENTER FIXES...FROM BOTH GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE PLATFORMS...ARE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT IT IS ESTIMATED THAT ADRIAN IS ONLY A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE. LANDFALL IS IMMINENT...AND THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RATHER RAPIDLY ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. INITIAL MOTION IS SIMILAR TO THAT IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AS IS THE TRACK FORECAST. ADRIAN IS EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING CURRENT ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE SYSTEM OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EL SALVADOR AND HONDURAS. SINCE THE CYCLONE IS QUITE SMALL...IT MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME SURVIVING THE PASSAGE OVER SUCH ROUGH TOPOGRAPHY. NONETHELESS THE NHC FORECAST TAKES ADRIAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND THEN INTO THE SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC. SHOULD ADRIAN OR ITS REMNANT EMERGE INTO THE CARIBBEAN...INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE RE-INTENSIFICATION. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE ATLANTIC. NOTE...ONLY IF THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN. IT SHOULD BE REPEATED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 13.4N 89.6W 70 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 14.4N 88.3W 40 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 21/0000Z 16.0N 86.2W 30 KT...OVER WATER 36HR VT 21/1200Z 17.7N 84.1W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 19.2N 81.8W 25 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 22.0N 76.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 24/0000Z 25.0N 69.0W 20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 25/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 20-May-2005 02:55:01 UTC