Hurricane ADRIAN

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HURRICANE ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU MAY 19 2005
 
ADRIAN INTENSIFIED INTO A HURRICANE EARLIER TODAY...AS INDICATED BY
REPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WHICH
PENETRATED THE CENTER AT 1655Z AND 1830Z.  ESTIMATES OF THE MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL...WERE
982 MB AND 984 MB.  AIRBORNE RADAR DEPICTED A CIRCULAR EYE WITH 10
NM DIAMETER... AND THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND SPEED WAS 92 KT
JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THESE DATA CORRESPOND TO SURFACE WINDS
OF 75 KT...WHICH IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY IN THIS
ADVISORY.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED THE SYSTEM...THE CONVECTIVE
PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED.  HOWEVER...ADRIAN IS STILL
LIKELY TO REACH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST AS A HURRICANE.

INITIAL MOTION IS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS.  EVEN
THOUGH THE CENTER OF ADRIAN IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL SPEND MANY HOURS OVER THE RUGGED
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  IF A WEAKENED ADRIAN EMERGES INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WILL BE PROHIBITIVE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION.  ONLY IF THE SYSTEM
MAINTAINS TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGHOUT ITS PASSAGE OVER LAND
WOULD IT RETAIN THE NAME ADRIAN IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN.  THIS
POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ADRIAN TO BE
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGH 72 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION.
 
IT SHOULD BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM ADRIAN IS
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WHICH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING AND
POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING MUD SLIDES OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRIAN OF
CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
FORECASTER KNABB/AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/2100Z 12.9N  90.3W    75 KT
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 13.8N  89.3W    45 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 15.2N  87.6W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 16.8N  85.6W    30 KT...OVER WATER
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 18.4N  83.2W    25 KT
 72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  77.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     23/1800Z 25.0N  70.0W    20 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     24/1800Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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