ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ADRIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 AM PDT WED MAY 18 2005 CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION HAS BECOME A LITTLE RAGGED THIS MORNING AS DRY AIR NOTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS BEEN DRAWN INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...AN 18/0920Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION WAS DISPLACED ABOUT 45-60 NMI SOUTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THERE IS ALSO CONSIDERABLE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS... SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS MOTION AND FORECAST TRACK...AND LOW-LEVEL CLOUD LINES SEEN IN 37GHZ TRMM MICROWAVE DATA AND THE FIRST FEW VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...45 KT...AND 35 KT FROM TAFB...AFWA...AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 055/07. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A NEW CENTER COULD FORM FARTHER EAST UNDER THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SURROUNDING THAT FEATURE HAS DECREASED...SO I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL TRACK MOTION AT THIS TIME. THE GLOBAL AND GFDL MODELS REMAIN IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT A PRONOUNCED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MEXICO...WHERE A RIDGE IS USUALLY LOCATED THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SHOULD HELP TO DRIVE ADRIAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA ON DAY 2 AND POSSIBLY INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY DAY 3. WHETHER OR NOT ADRIAN MAKES IT ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA INTACT AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL DEPEND IN PART ON JUST HOW STRONG THE CYCLONE IS WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS THREE FORECASTS AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT HAS TEMPORARILY DISRUPTED THE CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER...BANDING FEATURES REMAIN QUITE PRONOUNCED AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN IS EXCELLENT. AT LEAST SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS IN ORDER GIVEN THE VERY WARM SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES BENEATH AND AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE AND ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORERCASTING A VERY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW PATTERN... ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH. THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL BRINGS ADRIAN UP TO ABOUT 55 KT IN 24 HOURS AND THEN LEVELS IT OFF UNTIL LANDFALL. THE GFDL IS NOT AS ROBUST AS IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT IT STILL MAKES ADRIAN A 95-KT HURRICANE IN 24-36 HOURS. THE CLOSE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST REQUIRES THAT THE GFDL INTENSITY FORCAST BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT AT THIS TIME...BUT MINIMAL HURRICANE INTENSITY PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS STILL A VERY DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WINDS COULD BE NEARING THE COASTS OF GUATEMALA AND EL SALVADOR IN ABOUT 30-36 HOURS...SO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THESE AREAS LATER TODAY. ADRIAN ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS THAT COULD CAUSE FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/1500Z 11.1N 93.5W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/0000Z 11.6N 92.6W 50 KT 24HR VT 19/1200Z 12.6N 91.3W 55 KT 36HR VT 20/0000Z 13.6N 89.8W 60 KT 48HR VT 20/1200Z 15.0N 88.0W 30 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 21/1200Z 18.0N 84.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 22/1200Z 21.0N 79.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 23/1200Z 24.0N 73.0W 30 KT $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 18-May-2005 14:25:01 UTC