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Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED JAN 04 2006

A QUIKSCAT PASS OVER ZETA AT 2127 UTC SHOWED A NUMBER OF 35 KT
VECTORS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND EVEN THOUGH THE
CYCLONE HAS PROBABLY SPUN DOWN SOMEWHAT IN THE ENSUING HOURS...I AM
SETTING THE ADVISORY INTENSITY AT 35 KT TO BE ON THE SAFE SIDE. 
WESTERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR  CONTINUE TO GET THE BEST OF ZETA...AND
THE SYSTEM CONSISTS OF A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD SWIRLY WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ZETA IS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TOMORROW...AND TO A REMNANT
LOW SOON THEREAFTER.  THIS REMNANT LOW WILL PROBABLY LINGER OVER
THE ATLANTIC FOR A FEW DAYS BEFORE EVENTUALLY LOSING ITS IDENTITY.

AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM...ZETA OR ITS REMNANT WILL PROBABLY BE STEERED
BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE
CELL AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...AND A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 21.7N  46.0W    35 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 22.4N  47.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 23.9N  48.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 25.2N  49.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 26.2N  51.2W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  55.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Thursday, 05-Jan-2006 02:40:16 UTC