Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm ZETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST MON JAN 02 2006
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT ZETA'S CENTER IS BECOMING EXPOSED
JUST TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT THE STORM HAS WEAKENED...HOWEVER A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM A FEW HOURS AGO SHOWED 35-40 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
CONVECTION.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT HIGHER SPEEDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS...SO THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 45 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN CIMSS SHOW AN
AREA OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ABOUT 10 DEGREES TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THIS ADDITIONAL BLAST OF WESTERLIES SHOULD CAUSE
WEAKENING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THAT ZETA WILL BE
DISSIPATING WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS.

VISIBLE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER MOVED A LITTLE MORE
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND CURRENT MOTION IS
AROUND 240/7.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD
AND THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADEWIND FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

THE LATEST...06Z...GFDL RUN IS BACK TO STRENGTHENING ZETA INTO A
HURRICANE IN 2-3 DAYS...HOWEVER THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY TO VERIFY.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/1500Z 23.6N  40.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     03/0000Z 23.3N  41.4W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1200Z 23.0N  42.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     04/0000Z 23.0N  43.8W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1200Z 23.0N  45.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 03-Jan-2006 16:54:16 UTC