| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Tropical Storm ZETA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005
 
ZETA APPEARED ON THE VERGE OF LOSING ALL OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION A
FEW HOURS AGO... BUT SINCE ABOUT 21Z THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON
SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE AGAIN.  HOWEVER... THAT CONVECTION IS
LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT DUE TO THE PERSISTENT WIND
SHEAR.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK T-NUMBERS AT 00Z WERE 2.5 AND THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 45 TO 55 KT.  THE AMSU AND QUIKSCAT
OVERPASSES THIS AFTERNOON BOTH MISSED MOST OF THE CIRCULATION... SO
THERE IS NOT MUCH BASIS UPON WHICH TO CHANGE THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WHICH REMAINS 45 KT.  ZETA IS STILL BARELY MOVING... BUT IT APPEARS
TO BE DRIFTING WESTWARD.
 
THERE IS NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR REASONING.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HOLDS ON TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR ANOTHER 24
HOURS... LONGER THAN THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BUT WELL BELOW THE GFDL
INTENSITY FORECAST.  THE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC WINDS OVER ZETA ARE NOT
FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO GET MUCH STRONGER DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  SO IT IS POSSIBLE ZETA WILL REMAIN A TROPICAL
STORM LONGER THAN FORECAST... BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH IT STRUGGLED
AGAINST THE SHEAR EARLIER TODAY IT COULD ALSO LOSE ITS DEEP
CONVECTION FOR GOOD AT JUST ABOUT ANY TIME.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS SLOW AND GENERALLY WESTWARD... PRESUMING THAT SOME
CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO... WHICH WOULD ALLOW
THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES TO RETARD THE STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE EASTERLIES AROUND THE NARROW AND WEAK LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ZETA.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS
MIGHT BE PULLED NORTHWARD BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE ATLANTIC.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0300Z 25.6N  38.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     01/1200Z 25.5N  39.0W    40 KT
 24HR VT     02/0000Z 25.4N  40.0W    35 KT
 36HR VT     02/1200Z 25.4N  40.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     03/0000Z 25.6N  41.9W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     04/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN