ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF ZETA HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DETERIORATING DURING THE DAY...WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED CIRCULATION ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF WEAKENING CONVECTION. T NUMBERS WERE DOWN FROM ALL AGENCIES AT 18Z...AT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NUDGED DOWNWARD TO 45 KT ON THIS BASIS. WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS WEAKENING TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL ZETA DISSIPATES OR IS ABSORBED INTO A FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE CYCLONE FROM THE WEST. ZETA REMAINS LOCATED SOUTH OF WEAK RIDGING IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE. COUNTERING THIS SLOW WESTWARD STEERING IS THE CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...WITH THE RESULT THAT ZETA HAS MOVED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION GRADUALLY WEAKENS...A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION OF THE CENTER SHOULD RESUME IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW UNTIL THE FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHES IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THAT POINT THE REMNANTS OF EPSILON WILL LIKELY BE DEFLECTED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/2100Z 25.7N 38.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 01/0600Z 25.7N 38.6W 40 KT 24HR VT 01/1800Z 25.7N 39.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 02/0600Z 25.7N 40.7W 30 KT 48HR VT 02/1800Z 26.0N 41.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 31-Dec-2005 20:40:16 UTC