Tropical Storm ZETA

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TROPICAL STORM ZETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2005
 
ZETA IS ROUGHLY HALF OF A TROPICAL STORM... WITH MOST OF THE
CONVECTION EAST OF THE CENTER... BUT STILL SOME OF IT NEAR THE
FAIRLY TIGHT CIRCULATION CENTER.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UNCHANGED
FROM SIX HOURS AGO AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN 35 TO 45 KT.
HI-RES WIND ESTIMATES FROM A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 2015Z WERE
AS STRONG AS ABOUT 45 KT NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER... SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 45 KT.  THE QUIKSCAT DATA
INDICATED TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS FARTHER FROM THE CENTER IN THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.  WHILE THE FEW 50-60 KT
VECTORS WERE NOT LIKELY REPRESENTATIVE... 30-40 KT VECTORS WERE
WIDESPREAD IN THE OUTER BANDING EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE DEEPEST
CONVECTION. THE WIND RADII IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN
QUADRANTS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY.
 
ZETA IS STILL MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT... BUT A LITTLE
MORE TO THE RIGHT AT ABOUT 320 DEGREES... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE
ASYMMETRIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN DRAGGING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER A
LITTLE NORTHWARD.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS GENERALLY DO NOT HAVE A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE CIRCULATION OR ITS RECENT
MOTION... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST RELIES HEAVILY ON THE
ANTICIPATED STEERING FLOW.  THE NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT UNTIL THE UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FULLY OVERTAKE
AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEAR THE TROPICAL STORM.  ZETA MIGHT HOLD ON TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR ALMOST ANOTHER 24 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY
THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  AS ZETA WEAKENS IT SHOULD BE STEERED
INCREASINGLY BY THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A NARROW
EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE... SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
GRADUALLY BENDS TO THE WEST AS ZETA LIKELY DEGENERATES INTO A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0300Z 25.9N  37.5W    45 KT
 12HR VT     31/1200Z 26.1N  38.2W    40 KT
 24HR VT     01/0000Z 26.2N  39.1W    30 KT
 36HR VT     01/1200Z 26.2N  40.3W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     02/0000Z 26.3N  41.6W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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