ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ZETA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON EST FRI DEC 30 2005 AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WHICH HAD ITS ORIGINS IN AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH...BEGAN DEVELOPING ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WITH WELL-FORMED CONVECTIVE BANDS NEAR THE CENTER...WEAK ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ALOFT...AND TROPICAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS... ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON THE 27TH TROPICAL STORM OF 2005. THE INTIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE RULE- CONSTRAINED T2.5 CLASSIFICATIONS AND THE T3.5 DATA T NUMBERS. WITHIN 24 HOURS...WESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SHARPLY OVER THE CYCLONE...SO ZETA PROBABLY HAS A SHORT LIFE AHEAD OF IT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...AS ZETA IS MOVING AROUND A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AS THE WESTERLIES BEGIN TO IMPINGE ON THE CYCLONE WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. AFTER THAT...IF THE SYSTEM WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE SHEAR...IT SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE MEDIUM AND SHALLOW BAM MODELS...AND IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER TO THE WEST THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/1700Z 25.0N 36.9W 45 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 25.5N 37.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 26.0N 38.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 26.0N 40.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 01/1200Z 26.0N 42.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 30-Dec-2005 17:25:22 UTC