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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SUN DEC 04 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES STILL DEPICT A LARGE EYE...BUT THERE ARE BREAKS IN
THE EYEWALL OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  HIGH RESOLUTION
QUIKSCAT DATA FROM 2125Z SHOWED SEVERAL 60-KT VECTORS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE AND IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE PEAK
WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER.  ALSO...DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS
AND AMSU ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT HURRICANE STRENGTH. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS OCCURRING PRIMARILY OVER THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHERE A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDS
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  SINCE EPSILON IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARD LOWER LATITUDES...IT IS NOT LIKELY
TO INTERACT MUCH MORE WITH THIS FRONT.  HOWEVER THE GFS SHOWS THE
SYSTEM BECOMING ENMESHED WITHIN A LARGE MID-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE
THAT IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC IN A FEW
DAYS.  THIS...ALONG WITH INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR...IS LIKELY TO
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER THIS WEEK.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
DISSIPATING BEFORE THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  

EPSILON APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST SOUTH OF EAST...AROUND 100/8. 
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN
SOUTHEASTWARD...SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO THE STEERING
BETWEEN A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST-ORIENTED BLOCKING RIDGE AND THE
ABOVEMENTIONED CUTOFF LOW.  THE GFDL MODEL DOES NOT DRIVE THE
SYSTEM AS MUCH TO THE SOUTHWEST AS THE OTHER DYNAMICAL MODELS.  IN
DEFERENCE TO THE GFDL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT GO QUITE AS
FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST AS SHOWN BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY'S TRACK FORECAST.

BASED ON THE QUIKSCAT DATA...SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO THE WIND RADII
WERE MADE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      05/0300Z 34.2N  37.3W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 34.0N  35.8W    60 KT
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 33.4N  34.3W    50 KT
 36HR VT     06/1200Z 32.5N  34.0W    40 KT
 48HR VT     07/0000Z 31.2N  34.9W    30 KT
 72HR VT     08/0000Z 28.0N  38.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     09/0000Z 25.0N  41.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     10/0000Z 22.0N  45.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Monday, 05-Dec-2005 02:40:15 UTC