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Hurricane EPSILON


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE EPSILON DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI DEC 02 2005
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE STRUCTURE OF EPSILON OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...WITH THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING MODEST AMOUNTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...A WELL-DEFINED EYE...AND ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 65 KT FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR WHETHER THAT MUCH
WIND IS REALLY MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE GIVEN THE MODEST CONVECTION
AND COOL SSTS. AS LUCK WOULD HAVE IT...THIS EVENING'S QUIKSCAT
PASSES MISSED THE CYCLONE.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/9...BUT OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS EPSILON HAS BEEN MOVING TO THE RIGHT OF THAT HEADING...AND
THE MOTION OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS COULD BE QUITE IMPORTANT FOR
EPSILON'S ULTIMATE TRACK.  THERE HAVE BEEN ADDITIONAL SHIFTS IN THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH ARE ESSENTIALLY NOW SPLIT BETWEEN TWO
SCENARIOS. THE 12Z UKMET AND CANADIAN MODELS FAVOR A CONTINUED
MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST AND ABSORPTION BY A
MID-LATITUDE SHORT WAVE IN THE WESTERLIES WITHIN THREE DAYS. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND NOW ALSO THE ECMWF...
SHOW EPSILON MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE WESTERLIES AND TURNING
SOUTHWARD AFTER 72 HOURS.  THE GFDL AND GFS IN PARTICULAR ARE VERY
QUICK IN TURNING EPSILON EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER
WESTERLIES.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF EPSILON
SHOWS MID-LEVEL FLOW WITH A NORTHERLY COMPONENT.  GIVEN THIS...AND
THE RECENT RIGHTWARD DEFLECTION OF THE TRACK...I AM INCLINED TO
FAVOR THE LATTER OF THE TWO SCENARIOS.  WHILE THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED CONSIDERABLY SOUTHWARD OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT DAYS 4 AND 5...IT IS STILL WELL TO THE NORTH OF MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE...AND FURTHER SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENTS COULD BE
REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT ADVISORIES.

WATER TEMPERATURES DECREASE ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...AND SO A SLOW
SPIN DOWN OF THE VORTEX IS ANTICIPATED...WITH A GRADUAL LOSS OF
CONVECTION AND TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.  HOWEVER...IF A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK MATERIALIZES...WEAKENING AND/OR EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION COULD BE DELAYED BEYOND WHAT IS INDICATED BELOW.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/0300Z 34.5N  46.6W    65 KT
 12HR VT     03/1200Z 35.2N  45.0W    60 KT
 24HR VT     04/0000Z 36.1N  42.8W    55 KT
 36HR VT     04/1200Z 36.9N  40.5W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     05/0000Z 37.5N  38.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     06/0000Z 39.0N  34.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  31.0W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     08/0000Z 39.0N  30.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 03-Dec-2005 02:55:20 UTC