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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 28 2005
 
DELTA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME MORE ZONALLY ELONGATED AND...
ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION ARE PERSISTING TO
THE NORTH OF THE CENTER...THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS BEGINNING TO
ASSUME THAT OF A NON-TROPICAL SYSTEM.  BASED ON SOME
NON-RAIN-CONTAMINATED VECTORS FROM A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS...CURRENT
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT.  A FRONTAL ZONE IS IN THE VICINITY...
AS EVIDENCED BY COOL AIR STRATOCUMULUS JUST TO THE NORTH
OF THE STORM.  THICKNESS AND SURFACE PRESSURE FORECASTS FROM THE
GFS DEPICT DELTA AS A FRONTAL CYCLONE IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS. 
THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM AS AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.  THE EXTRATROPICAL VERSION OF
DELTA SHOULD BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE CANARY AND
MADEIRA ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AND DELTA'S EXTRATROPICAL REMNANT IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE MOVING JUST NORTH OF EAST NEAR 25 KT.   A 
GENERALLY ZONAL CURRENT...PREVAILING AT MID-TROPOSPHERIC LEVELS...
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A MOSTLY EASTWARD TRACK INTO
MOROCCO...BUT THERE CONTINUE TO BE DIFFERENCES IN THE PREDICTED
FORWARD SPEED.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN
FORWARD SPEED AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS BUT IS NOT AS FAST AS THE GFS.  THIS IS ONLY A LITTLE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 30.2N  23.3W    55 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 30.3N  18.9W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 30.3N  13.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 30.3N   7.2W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 30.0N   2.5W    25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     01/0600Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 28-Nov-2005 08:55:14 UTC