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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SUN NOV 27 2005
 
ALTHOUGH VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT DELTA
HAS AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH ITS CENTER A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE EYE FEATURE OBSERVED THIS MORNING...SHIP VQIB9
REPORTED 60 KT WINDS ABOUT 50 NMI NORTH OF THE CENTER AT 18Z.  THE
SHIP...WHICH HAS A HISTORY OF GOOD OBSERVATIONS...ALSO REPORTED A
PRESSURE OF 991 MB AND 25 FT SEAS.  ON THE BASIS OF THIS
REPORT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  THE SATELLITE DEPICTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO
DETERIORATE...HOWEVER...AND NO ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
CONSIDERED LIKELY.  BY TOMORROW...DELTA WILL BE OVER 22C WATER WITH
INCREASING SHEAR.  OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN 24
HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.  REGARDLESS OF ITS
STATUS...DELTA IS EXPECTED TO BRING GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE CANARY
ISLANDS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND GALES COULD REACH THE COAST OF
MOROCCO IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 050/23. DELTA IS ABOUT TO COME UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER LOW OVER WESTERN EUROPE.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TO THE EAST AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. 

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/2100Z 29.0N  28.5W    60 KT
 12HR VT     28/0600Z 29.8N  24.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     28/1800Z 30.0N  19.5W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/0600Z 29.7N  14.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     29/1800Z 29.3N   9.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     30/1800Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 27-Nov-2005 20:40:44 UTC