Tropical Storm DELTA

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TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 27 2005
 
DELTA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED
IMAGERY...WITH CONVECTIVE TOPS COLDER THAN -70C. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE STILL APPEARS SOMEWHAT SHEARED...AND THE LOW-CLOUD LINES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
MID-LEVEL EYE. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 1042Z ALSO HINTS THAT
DELTA IS NOT QUITE AS WELL-ORGANIZED AS IT APPEARS. THIS MORNING'S
QUIKSCAT PASS MISSED. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 45 TO
55 KT...AND THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO MATCH THE LOWER
END OF THIS RANGE.  THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE WOULD BE INCREASED THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD A BETTER CO-LOCATION OF THE SURFACE CENTER WITH
THE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE BECOME ESTABLISHED. REGARDLESS...WESTERLY
SHEAR OVER DELTA IS FORECAST TO INCREASE... AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE EARLIER WEAKENING TREND SHOULD RESUME BY
TOMORROW AT THE LATEST.  OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP/GFS SHOWS DELTA
INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 045/23...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO
DIFFICULTY PLACING THE CENTER.  DELTA IS MOVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND
A MID-LEVEL LOW TO ITS WEST...BUT WILL SOON BE FORCED EASTWARD BY
THE FLOW AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF A LARGER TROUGH OVER WESTERN
EUROPE.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.  A SOMEWHAT SLOWER TRACK
WOULD BE POSSIBLE SHOULD THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHEAR OFF FROM
THE FLOW ALOFT.

ALTHOUGH DELTA IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24
HOURS...WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE COULD SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE CANARY ISLANDS IN 24-36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/1500Z 27.7N  30.8W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/0000Z 29.0N  27.3W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/1200Z 29.5N  21.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     29/0000Z 29.5N  15.5W    35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  10.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     30/1200Z...ABSORBED INTO FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
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