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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 26 2005
 
SOME DEEP CONVECTION WITH TOPS COLDER THAN -70C HAS BEEN PERSISTING
THIS EVENING DOWNSHEAR OR TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE MOSTLY
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH TO
THE CENTER FOR DVORAK T-NUMBERS TO REMAIN 2.5 CORRESPONDING TO 35
KT.  WHILE THE QUIKSCAT OVERPASS NEAR 20Z MISSED MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION... IT DID REVEAL 30 KT WINDS JUST OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT... AND SINCE THE
STRENGTH OF THE WESTERLY WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY
STEADY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS... DELTA COULD REMAIN A
TROPICAL STORM WELL INTO SUNDAY.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A
STORM OUT TO 24 HOURS... BUT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ANTICIPATES THE
SHEAR TO TAKE SOME OF ITS TOLL SOONER THAN THAT.  DELTA SHOULD BE
EXTRATROPICAL OVER COOLER WATERS IN 24 HOURS OR SO AND EVENTUALLY
BECOME STRETCHED OUT AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY IN A FRONTAL ZONE.
 
DELTA IS GRADUALLY ACCELERATING AND IS NOW MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 18 KT... PERHAPS EVEN FASTER OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  A CONTINUED ACCELERATION ALONG THIS SAME HEADING
IS EXPECTED FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE
MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.  THEREAFTER... A
TURN TOWARD THE EAST IS FORECAST AS DELTA COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
WESTERN EUROPE.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
THIS PATH BUT DISAGREE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE FORWARD SPEED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FASTER AND TO THE EAST OF MOST OF THE
MODELS... CONSIDERING THE ALREADY QUITE RAPID INITIAL MOTION.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 24.2N  34.6W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 25.8N  32.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 27.8N  27.7W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 28.5N  22.4W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 28.5N  15.5W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     30/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL ZONE
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 27-Nov-2005 02:55:15 UTC