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Tropical Storm DELTA


ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DELTA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SAT NOV 26 2005

DELTA CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED AND WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH A CURVED BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. 
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK
T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES. BECAUSE THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE TOWARD COOLER WATERS AND WITHIN AN EVEN STRONGER WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED. DELTA SHOULD
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.    
 
DELTA IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR A DAY OR SO WITHIN
THE FLOW AROUND A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG 50 DEGREES
WEST. THEREAFTER...A TURN TO THE EAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS ANTICIPATED AS DELTA BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE CYCLONE OVER WESTERN EUROPE.
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS STEERING PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL OF THE
AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND THERE ARE NO OBVIOUS REASONS TO ASSUME
ANOTHER SOLUTION.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 22.4N  38.1W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 23.1N  37.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 25.5N  34.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 27.5N  31.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 29.0N  27.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 29.0N  15.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     30/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Saturday, 26-Nov-2005 14:55:23 UTC