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Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005
 
IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION AND
MOTION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE EARLIER TRACK. AN SSMIS
MICROWAVE PASS AT 0030Z HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE RACING MORE
QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION THOUGH...AND IF THIS IS THE CASE
THEN THE DEPRESSION IS ON A FAST TRACK TO DISSIPATION.  QUIKSCAT
AMBIGUITIES JUST IN A FEW MOMENTS AGO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY
THAT A CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT...BUT JUST BARELY.  THE
CONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS BELOW TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS AND UW/CIMSS INDICATE
THERE IS STILL ABOUT 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE
DEPRESSION...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL
DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT
SURVIVE...THE DEPRESSION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS BETTER
AGREEMENT NOW BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY
GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NEITHER MODEL NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THIS
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 
AFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE
APRROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OR
EVEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5.  A COMPLICATION IS THE BROAD AND
PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN.  IF
THIS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS
REMNANTS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA.  THIS
IS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH HAS NEVER THOUGHT HIGHLY
OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO FAR HAS BEEN RIGHT.  HOWEVER...THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRESUME THAT THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND IS
A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH IN
THE GULF.

 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      16/0300Z 14.9N  70.2W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/1200Z 15.0N  72.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     17/0000Z 15.1N  74.2W    35 KT
 36HR VT     17/1200Z 15.3N  76.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  78.5W    50 KT
 72HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  81.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     20/0000Z 16.0N  81.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     21/0000Z 16.5N  81.5W    55 KT
 
 
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