Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005
 
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT
THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT
10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES.
CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE
ABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS
BEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
VARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN
THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN...
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO
CONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER
AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT
1030Z.  AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER
THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE
WESTWARD.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK
DOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE...
ALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A
TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME.  WHILE THE
DETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW
MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE
DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE.
AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE
AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN
ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN
SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN
INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH
A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/1500Z 14.2N  67.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     16/0000Z 14.3N  69.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/1200Z 14.5N  71.1W    35 KT
 36HR VT     17/0000Z 14.7N  73.2W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/1200Z 14.8N  75.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/1200Z 15.0N  79.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     19/1200Z 15.0N  81.0W    65 KT
120HR VT     20/1200Z 15.5N  81.5W    65 KT
 
 
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