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Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005
 
THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE
DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER...WHICH WAS DEPICTED NICELY IN AN SSMIS OVERPASS AT 0043Z.
DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND SHIP V7CY9
REPORTED 29 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 20Z.  BASED ON THESE
DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
BASIC FORECAST THINKING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF
FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 72
HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE BAM
MODELS...REFLECTING THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE DETERMINED
IN PART BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. AT
THE MOMENT...THE CENTER IS A SHALLOW FEATURE MOVING WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE.
 
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS
DECREASING...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHEAR
TENDENCY ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS.  INDEED...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO
THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. 
IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD
THEREFORE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN.  GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN 2-3 DAYS.  ON THE OTHER HAND...THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS SAYS THE
DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE
DEPRESSION WILL SURVIVE THE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND
CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0300Z 14.5N  65.3W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N  66.5W    30 KT
 24HR VT     16/0000Z 15.3N  68.3W    35 KT
 36HR VT     16/1200Z 15.5N  70.5W    40 KT
 48HR VT     17/0000Z 15.5N  72.7W    45 KT
 72HR VT     18/0000Z 15.5N  76.5W    50 KT
 96HR VT     19/0000Z 15.5N  79.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     20/0000Z 15.5N  81.5W    65 KT
 
 
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