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Tropical Depression TWENTY-SEVEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE
THIS MORNING.  THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND MORE CLEARLY
DISCERNIBLE.  DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT ONLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE
OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR.  ESTIMATING
THE INTENSITY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE
CENTER POSITION... BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE EXPOSED SWIRL FROM THE
CONVECTION PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  18Z DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0... AND
THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT.
 
THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/7.  A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEYOND DAY THREE AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK... BUT
LIKELY SLOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO STILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN FIVE
DAYS.  SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE
CYCLONE WILL MOVE... DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW
STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME.  THE GFDL AND NOGAPS DEPICT A
DEEPER SYSTEM AND ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...
WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE
CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE THE SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THE
ENVIRONMENT COULD THEREAFTER BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING.  IN PARTICULAR... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS
FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF
DAYS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE OCEAN
TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM NEAR 29C.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS
A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS AND A PEAK AT 55 KT IN 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN...
BUT MUCH CLOSER TO THE SHIPS... AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE... AND THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 14.2N  64.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 14.6N  65.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 15.1N  67.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 15.4N  69.4W    40 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 15.5N  71.3W    45 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 15.5N  75.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 15.5N  78.5W    60 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 15.5N  80.5W    65 KT
 
 
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