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Hurricane BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005
 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY
INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0
ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD
TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY
DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED
TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER
INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY
SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN
WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY
TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE.
THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION.
 
REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL
CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE
DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  EVEN
WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD
STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS.
 
SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET
DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/0300Z 13.7N  82.8W    90 KT
 12HR VT     30/1200Z 13.5N  83.6W   100 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     31/0000Z 13.7N  84.7W    60 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     31/1200Z 13.7N  86.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 48HR VT     01/0000Z 13.7N  87.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     02/0000Z 14.0N  88.0W    20 KT...DISSIPATED
 
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Oct-2005 02:55:15 UTC