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Tropical Storm BETA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI OCT 28 2005
 
BETA IS GENERATING STRONG CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH TOPS TO -86C. 
HOWEVER...OVERPASSES FROM AMSR-E AT 0705Z AND SSM/I AT 1148Z
SUGGEST THE STORM HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT SHEARED...WITH THE CONVECTION
DISPLACED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  THERE ARE HINTS OF
THIS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AS WELL.  WHILE CIRRUS EAST OF BETA ARE
BLOWING TOWARD THE CENTER...ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY
OF WISCONSIN SHOW ONLY ABOUT 10 KT OF SHEAR...WHICH IF CORRECT DOES
NOT FULLY EXPLAIN THE APPARENT STRUCTURE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB...55 KT FROM SAB...AND 45 KT FROM
AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE AND A 50 KT REPORT AT 0900Z FROM SHIPS ZCAM4 JUST SOUTH OF
THE CENTER.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE BETA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/4.  BETA IS MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.  RAWINSONDE DATA AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THAT A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE IN THESE AREAS AFTER THE
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC IN 12-24 HR.  SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN CARIBBEAN IS BUILDING WESTWARD.  THIS
EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN BETA MORE NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HR
AND MORE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE GFS...GFDL...NOGAPS...AND ECMWF
ALL CALL FOR A VERY SHARP TURN...WHILE THE UKMET AND CANADIAN CALL
FOR A MORE GRADUAL TURN.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A
LITTLE MORE TO THE NORTH BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND
MOTION...CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA IN 36-48
HR.  THE NEW TRACK IS SOUTH OF THE UKMET BUT NORTH OF THE OVERALL
MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
IF BETA IS AS SHEARED AS THE MICROWAVE DATA SUGGESTS...THEN THE
SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION COULD BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. 
THAT BEING SAID...THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS THE SHEAR TO DECREASE
IN 12-18 HR...AND THE GFDL IS CALLING FOR BETA TO REACH 95 KT
BEFORE LANDFALL.  THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
CALL FOR BETA TO REACH CATEGORY TWO INTENSITY BEFORE LANDFALL.  THE
CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT COULD DISSIPATE
FASTER THAN FORECAST OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.
 
ONE OUTER RAINBAND IS CURRENTLY SPREADING ONSHORE IN NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.  AS BETA GETS CLOSER TO THE CENTRAL
AMERICAN COAST...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUDSLIDES
WILL INCREASE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 12.9N  81.2W    55 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.3N  81.2W    65 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 13.9N  81.8W    75 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.2N  82.6W    85 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 14.6N  83.6W    80 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 15.0N  85.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N  87.0W    25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING
120HR VT     02/1200Z 15.5N  88.5W    20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 28-Oct-2005 14:55:14 UTC