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Tropical Storm BETA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005
 
AS OFTEN OCCURS AS A DEPRESSION EVOLVES INTO A TROPICAL STORM... THE
OUTER BANDS FROM LAST NIGHT HAVE DISSIPATED WHILE BURSTS OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAVE CONSOLIDATED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE
ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS.  THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS
HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.  THE
DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005
SEASON.
 
THE SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 5 KT IS BEING PROVIDED BY
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW... IN BETWEEN A LARGE AND DEEP LAYER
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A DISTANT 2000 N MI TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC... AND A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO
DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO
EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS
SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.  OVERALL THE
MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND NONE
OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.
 
OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING... WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES EXCEEDING 29 CELSIUS
AND VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BETA COULD BE
NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN ABOUT 48 HOURS IF IT HAS NOT YET MADE
LANDFALL... AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX BASED ON SHIPS
INDICATES NEARLY A 50/50 SHOT AT 25 KT OF STRENGTHENING DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS.  THE GFDL FORECASTS EVEN MORE INTENSIFICATION...TO
HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 HOURS.  SINCE THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST KEEPS BETA OVER WATER LONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND GIVEN THE VERY BULLISH GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD AND ANTICIPATES A HURRICANE
BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL ON THE NICARAGUAN COAST.  FURTHER... SINCE
THE 36 HOUR FORECAST IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... IT IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN 36 HOURS IN
THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.  HOWEVER...WE HAVE
NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING THE ISSUANCE OF A
HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0900Z 11.4N  81.8W    35 KT
 12HR VT     27/1800Z 11.8N  82.2W    45 KT
 24HR VT     28/0600Z 12.5N  82.6W    55 KT
 36HR VT     28/1800Z 12.8N  83.0W    60 KT
 48HR VT     29/0600Z 13.0N  83.6W    65 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0600Z 13.0N  85.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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