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Hurricane WILMA


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER  37
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005
 
THE GEOMETRIC CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OF WILMA IS NOW MOVING OFF THE
COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA NEAR PALM BEACH.  HOWEVER...THE EYE
REMAINS QUITE LARGE AND COMPLETELY INTACT... EVEN ON THE WEST OR
BACK SIDE THAT IS STILL OVER THE PENINSULA.  SOME INLAND AREAS HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING A RELATIVE CALM PERIOD... BUT ONE THAT IS FAIRLY
SHORT-LIVED DUE TO THE FAST NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF ABOUT 22 KT. 
WINDS IN THE WESTERN EYEWALL REMAIN JUST ABOUT AS STRONG AS ON THE
EAST SIDE.  NWS MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR VELOCITIES STILL INDICATE WINDS
NEAR 120 KT AT ABOUT 5000 FT OVER LAND.  EVEN STRONGER WINDS ARE
PROBABLY STILL OCCURRING OVER WATER... AND THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED
ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 90 KT.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT FLORIDA
INDICATE THE SYSTEM REMAINS LARGE... AND NONE OF THE WARNINGS FOR
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CAN YET BE DISCONTINUED.  ONLY A GRADUAL
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WILMA SHOULD
TRANSFORM INTO A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO
AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN INTENSE BAROCLINIC TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE ESSENTIALLY
JUST UPDATES OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... EXCEPT TO SPEED UP THE
FORECAST SLIGHTLY TO KEEP UP WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 26.9N  80.0W    90 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 30.3N  75.8W    85 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 36.1N  68.9W    70 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 42.1N  61.6W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 44.9N  55.7W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 46.5N  44.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 47.5N  36.0W    55 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     29/1200Z 49.0N  25.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 24-Oct-2005 15:25:13 UTC