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Tropical Storm STAN


ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2005
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/10...A BIT FASTER THAN BEFORE. THERE HAS
BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. AS A
MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS STATES LIFTS OUT...
RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST TO BE
MAINTAINED AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY BEND THE TRACK OF STAN TO THE LEFT AND TAKE IT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS STAN APPROACHES THE MEXICAN COAST...
THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE MOTION COULD SLOW AS STAN NEARS THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE
ALSO SUGGESTS THAT WITH THIS SLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
COULD DECOUPLE FROM THE CIRCULATION ALOFT NEAR LANDFALL.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
CLOSEST TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND UKMET GUIDANCE.
 
THERE HAVE BEEN NO ADDITIONAL SHIP REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TO BE SAFE I WILL PRESUME THAT SUCH
WINDS STILL EXIST NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER WATER...WHERE THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN...HENCE THE LOWERING OF THE WARNINGS. ONCE
IN THE GULF...STAN SHOULD HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN...
WITH WARM WATERS...LIGHT SHEAR...AND UPPER ANTICYCLONIC SUPPORT.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 20.7N  89.4W    35 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 21.1N  90.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 21.3N  93.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 21.1N  94.9W    55 KT
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 21.0N  96.1W    65 KT
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 20.5N  98.0W    45 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
$$
NNNN


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Page last modified: Sunday, 02-Oct-2005 20:40:13 UTC