Hurricane PHILIPPE

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005
 
THE LEFTWARD BEND IN TRACK CONTINUES...AND INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
IS NOW AROUND 290/16...ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-AVERAGE SPEED IS EVEN
FASTER.  PHILIPPE IS CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED ABOUT 200 N MI TO THE
SOUTH.  IN FACT...PHILIPPE NOW HAS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM...AND MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED
CIRCULATION.  SINCE THE LARGER CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH IS BECOMING
THE DOMINANT WEATHER SYSTEM...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
PHILIPPE TO BECOME ABSORBED AND DISSIPATE WITHIN 24 HOURS. 
HOWEVER... IF PRESENT TRENDS CONTINUE...PHILIPPE COULD DISSIPATE
EVEN SOONER.

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.  EVEN IF PHILIPPE DISSIPATES...TROPICAL STORM OR GALE
FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING THE ISLAND AS A RESULT
OF THE LARGER CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/1500Z 31.1N  63.2W    35 KT
 12HR VT     24/0000Z 31.5N  66.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/1200Z...ABSORBED...DISSIPATED

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