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Hurricane PHILIPPE


ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

DEEP CONVECTION WITH RATHER COLD CLOUD TOPS REMAIN NEAR THE ALLEGED
CENTER OF PHILIPPE. A 2207 UTC SSMI OVERPASS PROVIDED SOME IDEA AS
TO THE CENTER LOCATION. EVEN THOUGH IT IS NOT CLEAR THAT A CLOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS...ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL IT
BECOMES CERTAIN THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NO LONGER EXISTS. BASED
ON A 2.5 DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN 
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.  IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE REMAINS IN A HIGH
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH DRY MID-LEVEL AIR SWEEPING OVER THE CYCLONE
FROM THE SOUTH.  IF PHILIPPE SURVIES...A MODEST INCREASE IN
STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE AS IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 24 TO
36 HOURS. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 345/15. THERE HAS NOT BEEN
MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS AND GFDL STILL
SUGGESTING THAT PHILIPPE WILL SLOW DOWN AND NOT GET PICKED UP BY
THE APPROACHING TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET
ACCELERATE PHILIPPE AND/OR ITS EXTRATROPICAL LOW NORTHEASTWARD 
AND MERGES IT WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO BUT IS NOT AS FAST WITH THE
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION. THE TRACK WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD BUT IT REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER BROWN/KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0300Z 28.8N  58.3W    35 KT
 12HR VT     23/1200Z 30.7N  59.1W    35 KT
 24HR VT     24/0000Z 33.0N  59.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     24/1200Z 35.3N  58.2W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     25/0000Z 36.5N  55.5W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED WITHIN FRONTAL ZONE.
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 23-Sep-2005 03:10:11 UTC