Hurricane PHILIPPE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

PHILIPPE REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED AS IT REMAINS IN THE GRIP OF A
LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTERED ABOUT 300 N MI TO ITS
WEST.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 40 KT.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING.  IF THE SHEARING INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER CYCLONE PERSISTS...THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AND
COULD EVEN DISSIPATE.  HOWEVER THE GFS CONTINUES TO PREDICT THAT
THE UPPER CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND A MORE FAVORABLE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER PHILIPPE.  IF THAT WERE TO
VERIFY...THE SYSTEM COULD RESTRENGTHEN AS A TYPICAL TROPICAL
CYCLONE.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE HYBRID-TYPE OF
STRENGTHENING IF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER
CYCLONE.  INDEED...THE SYSTEM ALREADY HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SUBTROPICAL
APPEARANCE.  GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY
SHOWS SLIGHT RESTRENGTHENING.  EXTRATROPICAL TRANSFORMATION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 4-5 DAYS.

THE CENTER IS PRACTICALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO FIND WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGES...SO THE INITIAL MOTION...360/10...IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN. 
DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO AGREE ON A NORTHWARD TO
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL
ANTICYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.  THEREAFTER...A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SHOULD ASSIST
RECURVATURE INTO THE WESTERLIES...WITH ACCELERATION.  THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW ONLY A PORTION OF PHILIPPE GETTING PICKED UP BY
THE TROUGH.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
THE PREVIOUS ONE AT DAYS 3-5...ONLY  BECAUSE OF A SLIGHT
UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY PICKED UP BY THE
TROUGH.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 22.4N  57.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 24.2N  57.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 26.6N  58.0W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 29.2N  58.8W    50 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.7N  59.3W    50 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 35.5N  55.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 38.5N  49.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 42.0N  40.0W    40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
$$
NNNN