Hurricane PHILIPPE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 20 2005

WESTERLY SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 23N 60W...CONTINUES
TO INHIBIT RE-INTENSIFICATION OF PHILIPPE.  THE CLOUD PATTERN
REMAINS QUITE DISORGANIZED WITH LITTLE SEMBLANCE OF BANDING
FEATURES...WHILE DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP AND
SUBSEQUENTLY SHEAR AWAY FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE GFS
PREDICTS THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL DEGENERATE INTO A NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST SHEAR AXIS...AND THAT THE SHEAR OVER PHILIPPE WILL WEAKEN
WITHIN 24 HOURS OR SO.  THEREFORE PHILIPPE MAY HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY
TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.  HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE BEEN KNOWN TO HAVE DIFFICULTY PREDICTING TROPICAL 200
MB FLOWS...AND THE SHEARING OVER THE STORM MAY NOT RELAX.  IN ANY
EVENT...AROUND 48 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BEGIN TO BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A
FINAL WEAKENING TREND.  BY 5 DAYS...GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS PHILIPPE
MERGING WITH A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC.

IT IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THIS SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE USING INFRARED IMAGERY.  MY BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION
IS 340/5.  REASONING FOR THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS BASICALLY
UNCHANGED.  PHILIPPE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...THROUGH A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...UNTIL IT PASSES ABOUT 32N.  AFTERWARD THE
SYSTEM SHOULD RECURVE AND ACCELERATE INTO THE WESTERLIES.  THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS MAINLY AN EXTENSION OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/0300Z 19.3N  57.6W    55 KT
 12HR VT     21/1200Z 20.7N  57.8W    55 KT
 24HR VT     22/0000Z 22.9N  58.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/1200Z 25.2N  58.9W    65 KT
 48HR VT     23/0000Z 27.5N  59.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     24/0000Z 32.5N  59.0W    55 KT
 96HR VT     25/0000Z 38.0N  52.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     26/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
$$
NNNN