Hurricane PHILIPPE

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HURRICANE PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND
OF 83 KT IN THE NORTHEAST EYEWALL.  THE PLANE SUBSEQUENTLY CLIMBED
TO 700 MB BECAUSE OF TURBULENCE IN THE STRONG CONVECTION THAT IS
TYPICAL OF INTENSIFYING TROPICAL CYCLONES.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS
ALSO MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 988 MB IN THE EYE BY
DROPWINDSONDE.  THE DROP HAD SURFACE WINDS OF 17 KT...SO THE
MINIMUM PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER.  USING THE
80 PER CENT FACTOR TO ESIMATE SURFACE WINDS FROM 850 MB...CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KT.  PHILIPPE IS UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE...THE EIGHTH OF THE SEASON...ON THIS ADVISORY. 
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS STRONG OVER ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT OF THE HURRICANE.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT SEEMS FAVORABLE
FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR A
CONTINUED INCREASE IN STRENGTH FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATER IN THE
PERIOD...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO LEVEL OFF AS PHILIPPE
ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF ABOUT 23N.

BASED ON THE LATEST RECON FIXES...THE TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO
THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.  INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/7...
ALTHOUGH THE SHORTER-TERM MOVEMENT HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTHWARD. 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERSISTENT WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 60W.  THIS FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD PATH OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT
OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      19/0300Z 16.5N  55.9W    65 KT
 12HR VT     19/1200Z 17.5N  56.6W    70 KT
 24HR VT     20/0000Z 18.6N  57.5W    75 KT
 36HR VT     20/1200Z 19.6N  58.3W    80 KT
 48HR VT     21/0000Z 20.8N  58.8W    85 KT
 72HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  59.5W    90 KT
 96HR VT     23/0000Z 26.0N  60.5W    95 KT
120HR VT     24/0000Z 29.0N  60.5W    95 KT
 
 
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