Tropical Storm PHILIPPE

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TROPICAL STORM PHILIPPE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 18 2005

SATELLITE IMAGES AFTER THE ECLIPSE SHOW A SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED
CLOUD PATTERN.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE UP TO 3.0...CORRESPONDING TO
45 KT.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER THE
CENTER IS THAT WELL EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MAIN MASS OF DEEP
CONVECTION...WHICH LEADS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE T-NUMBER.  THE
INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY SET TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  WE
WILL PROBABLY HAVE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM
WHEN VISIBLE IMAGERY BECOMES AVAILABLE.  PHILIPPE'S UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...ALTHOUGH IT IS
RESTRICTED OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM.  CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH
72 HOURS.  MY WIND SPEED FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE SHIPS AT DAYS
4-5 BECAUSE THE WESTERLY SHEAR MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS INDICATED BY
THIS GUIDANCE AT THESE LATER FORECAST TIMES.

PHILIPPE IS ESTIMATED TO BE CONTINUING ON A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...325/04.  THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THIS REGIME WILL PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS.  THEREFORE A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK IS PREDICTED.  MOST OF THE TRACK MODELS
ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT ON THIS KIND OF TRACK.  THE CURRENT NHC
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS PRETTY MUCH
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK DOES NOT NECESSITATE ANY WATCHES
OR WARNINGS FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES...INTERESTS IN THESE ISLANDS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PHILIPPE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      18/0900Z 14.6N  55.5W    40 KT
 12HR VT     18/1800Z 15.3N  56.0W    45 KT
 24HR VT     19/0600Z 16.4N  56.9W    55 KT
 36HR VT     19/1800Z 17.5N  57.8W    65 KT
 48HR VT     20/0600Z 18.7N  58.7W    70 KT
 72HR VT     21/0600Z 21.0N  60.5W    80 KT
 96HR VT     22/0600Z 23.5N  61.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     23/0600Z 26.0N  62.5W    95 KT
 
 
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