Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  35
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... ALONG WITH NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY...INDICATE
OPHELIA'S INTENSITY HAS REMAINED STEADY AT 75 KT SINCE THE
INTENSITY UPDATE MENTIONED IN THE TCU PRODUCT THAT WAS ISSUED
EARLIER TODAY. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AS NOTED IN RADAR AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY...AND THE UNUSUALLY LARGE 50 NMI DIAMETER EYE HAS BECOME
MORE DISTINCT WITH A SHARPER EDGE NOTED IN THE INNER EYEWALL. A
SERIES OF SMALL-SCALE CYCLONIC VORTICES HAVE BEEN ROTATING AROUND
THE INSIDE OF THE EYEWALL...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN THE LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS AS NOTED IN A FEW 77-79 KT WIND
SPIKES IN THE SFMR DATA...BUT THESE HIGHER VALUES WERE NOT FELT TO
BE INDICATIVE OF THE LARGER-SCALE EYEWALL WIND FIELD. THE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS DEVELOPED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/06. RECON AND RADAR POSITION FIXES HAVE
BEEN COMING IN ON TRACK...SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND SOUTH OF OPHELIA CONTINUES TO SHIFT STEADILY
EASTWARD OFF THE U.S. MID-ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND COASTS...WHILE A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND MISSOURI VALLEY
AREAS CONTINUES TO PRESS EASTWARD TOWARD THE HURRICANE. ANOTHER
DEEPER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UPSTREAM OVER MOST OF THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS IS ALSO MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD. AS SUCH...THIS
LARGE-SCALE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT OUT
OPHELIA TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN
ACCELERATE THE HURRICANE AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED AFTER THAT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE NHC
MODEL GUIDANCE...MINUS THE NORTHWARD-BIASED UKMET MODEL WHICH TAKES
OPHELIA ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES BY 48 HOURS.

THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR OPHELIA TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE...POSSIBLY EVEN REACHING CATEGORY 2 STATUS
...BEFORE INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND INTERACTION INDUCE
SOME SLOW WEAKENING IN THE 24-72 HOUR PERIOD. AFTER THAT...MUCH
COLDER WATER WITH SSTS LESS THAN 20C LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF 41N
LATITUDE SHOULD QUICKLY ASSIST IN OPHELIA TRANSITIONING INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 34.1N  77.2W    75 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 34.8N  76.4W    80 KT...NEAR CAPE LOOKOUT NC
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 35.3N  75.4W    75 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 36.0N  74.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 37.5N  72.2W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 41.3N  65.0W    60 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 46.0N  56.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/1800Z 49.0N  41.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

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