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Hurricane OPHELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  34
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 14 2005
 
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE AND NOAA LAND-BASED
DOPPLER RADARS FROM WILMINGTON AND MOREHEAD CITY INDICATE THAT THE
INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 70 KT BASED ON 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS
OF 80 KT IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT AND DOPPLER VELOCITIES OF 86-91
THAT EXTENDED FROM 2500-8000 FT. THE ORGANIZATION HAS CONTINUED TO
IMPROVE IN RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...DESPITE THE VERY LARGE 50
NMI DIAMETER EYE. OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 030/06. RECENT 12Z UPPER-AIR DATA AND WATER
VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND WEST
OF OPHELIA HAS WEAKENED...WHEREAS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE COMBINATION OF THE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH AND AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE WEST SHOULD ACT
TO KEEP OPHELIA MOVING IN A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEAST TO
NORTHEASTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF THE LARGE EYE OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS BY 24 HOURS...AND CLEARING THE OUTER BANKS BY
36 HOURS. THE VARIOUS NHC MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS
SCENARIO. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH THE NOGAPS...UKMET...CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS STALL OPHELIA
NEAR THE OUTER BANKS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND THEN MOVE THE HURRICANE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER OR JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE COD AREA. IN
CONTRAST... THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP OPHELIA
WELL OFFSHORE AND MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD IN DEEP-LAYER WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW. THE LATTER
SCENARIO IS PREFERRED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE
SYNOPTIC-SCALE FLOW PATTERN AND VIGOROUS UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW AND THE OUTFLOW WILL INCREASE TO
THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. GIVEN THAT THERE IS STILL
ENOUGH RELATIVELY WARM WATER BENEATH THE HURRICANE...SOME SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL OCCURS...
ESPECIALLY IF THE EYE REMAINS MORE OVER THE WATER THAN OVER LAND.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/1500Z 33.7N  77.6W    70 KT
 12HR VT     15/0000Z 34.5N  76.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     15/1200Z 35.1N  75.9W    75 KT...NEAR OUTER BANKS
 36HR VT     16/0000Z 35.8N  74.5W    70 KT
 48HR VT     16/1200Z 36.8N  72.5W    65 KT
 72HR VT     17/1200Z 39.6N  68.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     18/1200Z 45.0N  58.0W    50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     19/1200Z 49.0N  45.0W    45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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