Hurricane OPHELIA

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 11 2005
...CORRECTED GFS TO GFDL IN SECOND PARAGRAPH...
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY RADIOMETER
ON BOARD A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WERE 61 KT AND PEAK 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 77 KT.  USING A BLEND OF THESE DATA...THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD TO 65 KT.  BECAUSE OF THE
INFLUENCE OF UPWELLED COOLER WATERS AND DRIER AIR TO THE WEST...NO
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  SOME
RE-INTENSIFICATION MAY OCCUR BY 48-72 HOURS DUE TO THE ENERGIZING
EFFECT OF THE GULF STREAM AND A MODIFICATION OF THE AIR MASS. 
ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR A LARGE INCREASE
IN STRENGTH...INTENSITY PREDICTIONS CAN EASILY HAVE ERRORS OF 1
SAFFIR-SIMPSON CATEGORY IN 2-3 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED
FORECAST IS AGAIN RATHER SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE.  COOLER
WATERS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE WEAKENING  BY DAYS 4-5.

THE CENTER DRIFTED A LITTLE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS...BUT SO FAR THE MOVEMENT IS STILL QUASI-STATIONARY.
OPHELIA REMAINS TRAPPED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CELLS.  THE BLOCKING
HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS PREDICTED TO BE BROKEN UP IN 2-3 DAYS
BY A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH PROGRESSING FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.   THIS SHOULD ALLOW OPHELIA TO EVENTUALLY MOVE ON A 
NORTHWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD TRACK...AS THE TROUGH BECOMES THE
DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE LATE IN THE PERIOD.  TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
IS SOMEWHAT DIVERGENT.  THE GFDL HAS SHIFTED FARTHER TO THE LEFT AND
SHOWS LANDFALL OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WHILE THE U.K. MET MOVES THE
SYSTEM VERY SLOWLY FOR A FEW DAYS AND THEN TAKES IT NORTHEASTWARD
JUST OFF THE OUTER BANKS.  THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE KEEPS OPHELIA WELL
EAST OF THE COAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK DURING THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS BUT THEN TURNS THE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THIS IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE LATEST GFS AND
NOGAPS SOLUTIONS...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD BASED ON SHIP...BUOY...AND AIRCRAFT DATA...DICTATE THE
ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS AT THIS TIME.  

 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/2100Z 31.5N  76.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     12/0600Z 31.7N  76.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     12/1800Z 31.9N  77.1W    65 KT
 36HR VT     13/0600Z 32.4N  77.3W    65 KT
 48HR VT     13/1800Z 32.9N  77.3W    70 KT
 72HR VT     14/1800Z 34.5N  76.5W    70 KT
 96HR VT     15/1800Z 37.0N  75.0W    50 KT
120HR VT     16/1800Z 41.0N  70.0W    40 KT
 
 
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