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Hurricane OPHELIA (Text)

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HURRICANE OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE EVENING SHOWS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
OF OPHELIA HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION.  REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 977-978 MB AND AN EYEWALL
OPEN IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.  MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AT 700 MB
ARE 79 KT IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...WHILE EYEWALL DROPSONDES IN
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS INDICATED 60-65 KT SURFACE
WINDS.  SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DATA IS ESSENTIALLY IDENTICAL TO THE
PREVIOUS FLIGHT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 70 KT.

OPHELIA HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE PAST 6
HR BUT IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGES CENTERED OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE AND
NEAR 25N57W...WITH OPHELIA IN BETWEEN.  THE LATEST LARGE-SCALE
MODEL RUNS FORECAST THIS COMBINATION TO KEEP OPHELIA NEARLY
STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A SLOW GENERALLY
NORTHWARD MOTION AS THE U. S. RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ALTANTIC.  THE GUIDANCE IS STILL WELL SPREAD...WITH THE LEFT
OUTLIERS OF THE GFDN AND THE CANADIAN CALLING FOR LANDFALL IN SOUTH
CAROLINA AND THE RIGHT OUTLIERS OF THE GFS AND GFDL CALLING FOR THE
STORM TO PASS EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE MAIN ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE. 
THE NEW TRACK HAS A SMALL LOOP IN THE FIRST 24-36 HR...AS MUCH OF
THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT OPHELIA WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD DURING PART
OF THAT TIME.

OPHELIA CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR...
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ABUNDANT DRY AIR WEST OF THE CYCLONE. 
THESE HAVE PROBABLY ERODED THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE TO SOME DEGREE. 
HOWEVER...THE LARGEST FACTOR CONTROLLING THE INTENSITY IS LIKELY TO
BE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND UPWELLING OF COLD WATER UNDERNEATH
THE SLOW-MOVING STORM.  NOAA BUOY 41002 LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER IS REPORTING AN SST OF 27.2C...AND A DRIFTING BUOY SOUTH OF
THE CENTER IS REPORTING 24.4C...DOWN ALMOST 3C FROM BEFORE OPHELIA
PASSED OVER IT.  ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA...SSTS ARE BETWEEN 27-28C
EXCEPT IN THE RELATIVELY NARROW GULF STREAM.  SHOULD OPHELIA MOVE
AS SLOWLY AS FORECAST...IT MAY UPWELL ENOUGH COLD WATER TO SUPPRESS
DEVELOPMENT.  THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND SUPERENSEMBLE ALL SHOW A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING THROUGH 30 HR...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT.  HOWEVER...THOSE MODELS ALL FORECAST WEAKENING AFTER
36-48 HR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET FOLLOW THAT
SCENARIO...BUT IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY.

THE HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
U. S. COAST WITH NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.  IF OPHELIA IS TO BEGIN A
TRACK LIKE THAT OF THE GFDN OR CANADIAN TOWARD SOUTH CAROLINA...IT
SHOULD HAPPEN WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HR.  THEREFORE...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO SOUND AN ALL CLEAR FOR ANY PART OF THE AREA CURRENTLY
UNDER THE HURRICANE WATCH.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      11/0300Z 31.8N  75.8W    70 KT
 12HR VT     11/1200Z 31.7N  75.8W    70 KT
 24HR VT     12/0000Z 31.7N  76.1W    75 KT
 36HR VT     12/1200Z 32.0N  76.4W    75 KT
 48HR VT     13/0000Z 32.4N  76.7W    75 KT
 72HR VT     14/0000Z 33.5N  77.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     15/0000Z 35.5N  76.5W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  73.0W    35 KT...OVER WATER
 
 
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