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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 10 2005

...CORRECTED 72 HOUR INTENSITY...85 KT...IN TABLE...
 
RECON REPORTS THROUGH 06Z LOCATED THE CENTER WITHIN A LONE BURST OF
DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ROTATING SOMEWHAT WITHIN A LARGER
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WHICH IS STILL MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASUREMENTS BY
DROPSONDE WERE 983-985 MB... BUT MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS
WERE 70 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 56 KT AT THE SURFACE.  DVORAK
T-NUMBERS HAVE ALSO COME DOWN TO 3.5.  THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
SET TO 60 KT.  WHILE THIS MAKES OPHELIA A TROPICAL STORM RATHER
THAN A HURRICANE... THE WEAKENING IS ONLY SLIGHT AND
RESTRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 035/9... BUT THIS NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS DECEPTIVE SINCE IT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR ONLY ABOUT
12 MORE HOURS... OR LESS.  AS THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. PROCEEDS WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... A STRONG AND DEEP RIDGE IS
FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO BUILD IN ITS PLACE.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD STOP OPHELIA FROM MOVING OUT TO SEA AND INSTEAD
PERHAPS FORCE IT WESTWARD AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST.  HOW
LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THIS SCENARIO TO EVOLVE IS NOT AGREED UPON BY
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE
CURRENT MOTION...AND IT ALONG WITH THE GFDL BRING OPHELIA TO THE
COAST THE FASTEST.  CONVERSELY...THE NOGAPS AND UKMET STALL THE
SYSTEM OFFSHORE LONGER BUT EVENTUALLY BRING IT TO THE COAST.
ALTHOUGH THIS REMAINS A FAIRLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST...THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THE GFS AND GFDL SOLUTIONS...AND IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT
NORTHWARD.
 
OPHELIA IS STRUGGLING AGAINST WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND SOME VERY
DRY MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH THIS APPEARS TO BE IMPACTING THE CYCLONE MOSTLY BENEATH
ITS UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW LAYER SINCE CIRRUS IS STILL FANNING OUT TO
THE SOUTHWEST FROM THE CENTER.  THE RIDGE THAT BUILDS NORTH OF
OPHELIA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WILL PROBABLY CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING.  THE SHIPS MODEL NOW ONLY PEAKS AT
68 KT...WHILE GFDL FORECASTS NEAR 85 KT...WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW 85 KT PRIOR TO LANDFALL
GIVEN THE LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED TO UNFOLD SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE.
 
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
COAST LATER TODAY.
 
 
FORECASTER KNABB
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/0900Z 31.2N  76.8W    60 KT
 12HR VT     10/1800Z 31.7N  76.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     11/0600Z 31.9N  76.7W    70 KT
 36HR VT     11/1800Z 32.0N  77.3W    75 KT
 48HR VT     12/0600Z 32.3N  78.0W    80 KT
 72HR VT     13/0600Z 33.0N  79.5W    85 KT
 96HR VT     14/0600Z 34.5N  79.5W    45 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     15/0600Z 37.0N  77.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Saturday, 10-Sep-2005 09:55:09 UTC