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Hurricane OPHELIA


ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
 
OPHELIA IS A PECULIAR CYCLONE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL AGENCIES INDICATE THAT OPHELIA IS A HURRICANE AND THE LATEST
MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 983
MB. NORMALLY...THIS VALUE WOULD CORRESPOND TO A SYSTEM OF HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE MAXIMUM
SURFACE WINDS MEASURED BY THE SFMR ON BOARD OF THE PLANE ARE 65
KNOTS AND 49 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 55 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE DROP
IN PRESSURE...OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.
 
OPHELIA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 030
DEGREES AT 4 KNOTS. STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND THE CYCLONE
IS LOCATED AT THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THIS
TROUGH WILL BRING OPHELIA SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST FOR ABOUT A
DAY OR TWO. THEN...A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE
OPHELIA WESTWARD AND WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE U.S. COAST.
ONE BY ONE...RELIABLE MODELS HAVE BEEN CHANGING THEIR TUNE TO MIMIC
THE GFDL...AND UNANIMOUSLY BRING OPHELIA BACK TO THE UNITED
STATES IN ABOUT 4 TO 5 DAYS. THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN CHANGING BACK
AND FORTH...HAS BROUGHT OPHELIA BACK TOWARD THE COAST FOR THE PAST
TWO RUNS. THIS MODEL CONSENSUS IS THE BASIS TO BRING OPHELIA AS A
HURRICANE TOWARD THE GEORGIA OR SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IN ABOUT 4
DAYS.
 
BECAUSE OPHELIA IS CURRENTLY MOVING AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST EAST...
THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. NEW WATCHES AND
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/1500Z 29.5N  78.9W    55 KT
 12HR VT     10/0000Z 30.0N  78.5W    65 KT
 24HR VT     10/1200Z 30.6N  78.0W    70 KT
 36HR VT     11/0000Z 31.0N  77.4W    70 KT
 48HR VT     11/1200Z 30.5N  77.5W    70 KT
 72HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  78.5W    75 KT
 96HR VT     13/1200Z 31.5N  80.0W    75 KT
120HR VT     14/1200Z 33.5N  81.5W    30 KT...INLAND
 
 
$$
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Page last modified: Friday, 09-Sep-2005 14:55:08 UTC