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Tropical Storm OPHELIA (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 08 2005

SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTED ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER AND WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THE MOST INTENSE REFLECTIVIES IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL FEATURE...WITH DOPPLER
VELOCITIES AROUND 65 KT AT 6000 FT.  THE RADAR DATA AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT SOME OF THE RAIN BANDS ARE
SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF THE COAST.  A WIND GUST TO 41 KT WAS JUST
MEASURED AT THE ST. AUGUSTINE C-MAN SITE.  THERE IS WELL-DEVELOPED
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.  OPHELIA IS OVER
WARM WATERS AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 10-15
KT RANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW THE
SYSTEM BECOMING A HURRICANE UNTIL 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
SHOWS SLOW STRENGTHENING...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE SOONER THAN INDICATED. 
ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE
STORM AROUND 18Z.

STEERING CURRENTS REMAIN WEAK AND ILL-DEFINED...AND THERE HAS BEEN
LITTLE OVERALL MOTION SINCE YESTERDAY.  OPHELIA IS TRAPPED BETWEEN 2
SUBTROPICAL ANTICYCLONE CELLS.  THERE ARE NO APPARENT SYNOPTIC-
SCALE FEATURES TO BRING ABOUT SIGNIFICANT MOTION.  HOWEVER THE GFS
AND NOGAPS SUGGEST THAT SOME WESTERLY MOMENTUM WILL SINK SOUTHWARD
NEAR OPHELIA AND PUSH THE SYSTEM A LITTLE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UNITED
STATES EAST COAST...WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY BLOCK FURTHER EASTWARD
MOTION.  MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A NORTHEASTWARD TO
EASTWARD MOTION WHICH SLOWS TO A CRAWL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. 
THE GFDL HURRICANE MODEL IS THE OUTLIER AND LOOPS OPHELIA BACK
TOWARD THE COAST BY 5 DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A
LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT NEARLY AS FAR EAST AS THE
BULK OF THE GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      08/1500Z 28.6N  79.6W    50 KT
 12HR VT     09/0000Z 28.7N  79.6W    55 KT
 24HR VT     09/1200Z 29.0N  79.3W    60 KT
 36HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N  78.7W    65 KT
 48HR VT     10/1200Z 30.0N  78.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     11/1200Z 31.0N  76.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     12/1200Z 31.0N  76.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     13/1200Z 30.5N  76.0W    70 KT
 
 
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